The social budget model is a macro level model in the social sector that helps to forecast the revenues and expenses in the field of social developments in both the short and long term. Also, with alternative demographic and economic developments in the background, undertake simulations of different policy options and their costs and benefits.
The model consists of a work file system that is created by Excel and combines the demographic aspects, economic performance and various forecasts and developments of the social costs and benefits. Praxis has developed the model since 2002 and made close collaboration with the Ministry of Social Affairs. The model is based on a ILO related model and now it is used with different Praxis projects. Moreover, various versions of the model have been handed to the Ministry of Social Affairs to use.
With the help of the model, the following projects have been created:
- Reelika Leetmaa, Andres Võrk (2003). “The impact of family support on family planning and the state budget.” Praxis Policy Analysis 5/2003.
- Ene-Margit Tiit, Lauri Leppik and Andres Võrk, Reelika Leetmaa (2004). “The impact of European Union’s common pension objectives on Estonia’s pension system.” PRAXIS Working Papers 14/2004.
- Reelika Leetmaa, Andres Võrk and Epp Kallaste (2004). “Elderly workforce in the labour market and the worklife.” PRAXIS Working Papers 19/2004
- Andres Võrk, Maris Jesse, Indrek Roostalu and Tarmo Jüristo (2005). “The Sustainability of Estonia’s health care financing.” PRAXIS Working Papers 21/2005
The work with the model is a continuous process because of the updated data and changes in the legislation. The model includes the following components:
- Population model (prediction of births and deaths)
- The Macroeconomic assumptions model
- The labour market development model
- State-financed family support model
- State-financed disabled people’s benefit model
- State pensions model
- Temporary work incapacity benefit model
- Health insurance forecast of revenues and expenses model